While we cannot yet talk of an economic recovery, the danger of seeing the global economy slip into a depression led by the USA seems to have been warded off, according to ERSTE-SPARINVEST in its quarterly assessment of the situation on the international financial markets. Summary of key points:
- No depression but a severe recession
- Low risk of rising yields at present:
ESPA expects key interest rates of 1% during the year and a
possible decline in yields on 10-y government bonds to 2.5%
- Risk appetite of investors somewhat higher
- Sentiment on stock markets has brightened up
The global economy finds itself in its worst and widest recession since 1945. Nonetheless, some early indicators are suggesting that developments in the second quarter of 2009 will not get any worse. Economic growth in the euro area this year is set to contract by roughly 2.8%, while real gross domestic product (GDP) in the USA is likely to fall by 2.2%. "We expect the global economy to stabilise in 2010, but it may still fall short of its potential", explain the experts at ERSTE-SPARINVEST in their latest assessment of the international capital markets.
ERSTE-SPARINVEST does not share the concern of hyperinflation that is sometimes expressed, which may be triggered by the state-funded stimulus packages running into trillions of euros. Instead, the main worry in the short term is rather deflation. The crucial factors in this respect are the low industrial capacity in use, the sharp decline in consumption and the rising unemployment rates. The ESPA commentary reveals that the trend towards zero-interest policies at the central banks is continuing. Yield levels will remain low and possibly even drop further. The ESPA experts reckon that the yield on a 10-year German government bond will fall during the year to 2.5% (as of 22 April 2009: 3.17%), while the European Central Bank (ECB) will bring its key rate down to at least 1%.
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When investing in bond portfolios, ERSTE-SPARINVEST still prefers to go for government bonds or state-guaranteed bonds. Corporate bonds with good ratings are considered to be particularly attractive in the medium term. Caution is still advised with high-risk bonds.
The equity markets have improved considerably in recent weeks after a turbulent start to the year. The MSCI World index was 22% in the red, but these losses have now almost been recovered. Investor mood has perked up while the medium and long-term lagging indicators are starting to turn. Nonetheless, there is still some way to go before the old highs are scaled again. The downside is that corporate earnings have taken a major hit. Return on equity has fallen by 12% in one month and earnings are already down by 30% since peaking in the previous year. This is why the equity markets will stay volatile, at least until clarity is restored regarding profit trends. Growth in 2010 is likely to be driven more by the USA and the BRICK countries than by Europe.
ERSTE-SPARINVEST has now raised the weighting of equities (for mixed funds under the ESPA investment strategy) to one quarter of the maximum ratio. The countries and regions overweighted are Latin America, Austria and the UK, as well as Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore in Asia. In terms of sectors, preference is given to energy, telecom and health-care.
More information:
Investment Outlook
ERSTE-SPARINVEST, Media and Public Relations
1010 Wien, Habsburgergasse 1A,
Telefax: 0043 (0) 50 100 DW 17102
Dieter Kerschbaum, Tel. 050 100 Ext 19858,
e-mail: dieter.kerschbaum@sparinvest.com
Regina Haberhauer, Tel. 050 100 Ext 19860,
e-mail: regina.haberhauer@sparinvest.com
ERSTE-SPARINVEST Kapitalanlagegesellschaft m.b.H.
Registered in Vienna, FN 81876 g, Commercial Court Vienna, DVR 0550922
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Questa è una comunicazione pubblicitaria. Tutti i dati provengono da fonti ERSTE-SPARINVEST KAG, a meno che non sia esplicitamente indicata una fonte diversa. Le lingue che usiamo per la nostra comunicazione sono il tedesco e l’inglese. Il prospetto (ed eventuali modifiche) è stato pubblicato in conformità alle disposizioni della legge InvFG 1993 (legge federale austriaca sui fondi di investimento) nella versione in vigore nella "Gazzetta Ufficiale del quotidiano Wiener Zeitung" ed è a disposizione di chi è interessato, gratuitamente, presso la sede della ERSTE-SPARINVEST Kapitalanlagegesellschaft m.b.H., e presso la sede della Erste Group Bank AG (banca depositaria). La data esatta dell’ultima pubblicazione ed eventuali altri punti di distribuzione sono riportati sul sito web della ERSTE-SPARINVEST KAG (www.sparinvest.com). Il presente documento ha valore di informazione supplementare per i nostri investitori e si basa sullo stato delle conoscenze delle persone che ne hanno curato la redazione al momento della stessa. Le nostre analisi e conclusioni sono di natura generale e non contemplano le esigenze individuali dei nostri investitori relativamente al rendimento, alla situazione fiscale o alla propensione al rischio. L’andamento passato dei valori non è da considerarsi come base indicativa affidabile per l’andamento futuro di un fondo.
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